So we talked about coverage rates and we talked about standardized biases so now I thought I would talk about the root mean squared error (RMSE).  And the root mean squared error is basically another way you can see if your estimated value, like the one you get from your simulations is anywhere close to your true value.  And like its name implies, first you square the differences between your estimated values and the true value, then you take the mean of those squared differences, then you take the square root of mean of those squared differences.  I know — maybe not the most intriguing stuff but lets use it in an exciting example.  And I thought I would use the example of the probability that Tina would be in a justified dimension again but then I thought something more exciting might be needed to grab your attention.  Something really big, really huge, out of this world, out of this dimension, if you will.  Something that would make you grab on to your seats and then get up from your seats and say, “Damn, that Irene sure knows how to write.  I have to go and get her trilogy right now!  Yes, I have to!  I just have to!  Yes, damn, she’s good!  Yes!”  Something like that.  And then I got writer’s block.  I thought about maybe giving an example involving my recent trip to Boston and Cape Cod like about something neat I learned at the Joint Statistical Meetings or how it took my colleagues, Peter and Julia, and me forever going around and around … and around … to find this celebrity hub called Strega where we dined for lunch (and yet could not find a single celebrity there to pitch my trilogy to).  By the way, GPS around the Boston harbor?  Works even worse than usual.  Or like how my publicist Jessi whom I vacationed with in Cape Cod used to do her best Joey Tribbiani impersonation from our balcony every time she saw the cute poolboys Filip or Stefan below.  Or how I almost got in trouble in the airport because … um, never mind … not gonna pull an Amanda Seyfried here as I don’t have that much star power … yet anyway.  Damn … I had a great trip!  But damn … can’t find a good example in any of those tidbits.  So instead I conducted another simulation with our previous example and got an estimate for the probability of Tina being in a justified dimension as 12.54% and an RMSE of 0.54%, which is fairly small, so again we can deduce that our estimate is quite close to the true value of 12%.  Well, that’s all for now but join me next time for more statistics-y/physics-y/trilogy related stuff.  Until then …

jtdoin

What can I say? That’s stuck in my head now.  Thanks for that, Jessi!

PS: Also, want to thank Julia just for the yummiest salmon I ever had at Strega during JSM.  Next time, it’ll be my treat.  When we’re there for an APS March meeting.  Coinciding with an Order of The  Dimensions movie premiere. Yes, I’m serious. Yes, it’s gonna happen.  Yes, I have a backup plan to treat Julia sooner too.

Advertisements