So sometimes we care about competing risks and sometimes we don’t. Sometimes we just want to see if Anton will ever get caught, either by Randy or someone else. So what we can do is look at a Kaplan-Meier curve.  Now, lets say we focus on ten dimensions, and in two of them, Anton gets caught.  He gets caught at 25 months in one dimension and at 40 months in another dimension.  So we can plot something called a Kaplan-Meier curve that looks like this.

sv1

And we can see that if we follow the dimensions for 50 months, Anton has about a 55% percent chance of getting away scot free.  Now, I know what you’re thinking.  It’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday is coming out so of course, I’m pimping my trilogy again.  No!  You’re thinking if Anton only gets caught in two of  the ten dimensions, why are his chances of getting away only 55% and not 80%? Well, that’s because some dimensions are followed only 10 months or 20 or 30 or 35 or so on.  These dimensions are referred to as censored, meaning we do not know what happens in those realms after we stop following them, so we drop them out from our final probability at 50 months.  Of course, Anton could have gotten away in all ten dimensions, so that our curve could have just looked like a straight line at 100%.  Is that the case?  Well, you know Black Friday and Cyber Monday are here so …  okay, I’m stopping. Until next time.

bc5

Sorry — that’s it. I promise.

 

 

 

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