So another topic that comes up at work: sensitivity and specificity. What is it? Well sensitivity is the chance the Randy will really find Anton in a dimension that he believes Anton is in. And specificity is the chance that Anton is not in a dimension and Randy also suspects that that dimension is Anton-free. Short and simple like that. And what? Too short?? Okay, okay, I’ll do something longer next time. Like maybe another poem. A sensitive poem. Until then, lets all be serene and peaceful like this rose.
Well, I hope it was serene and peaceful!
So how can we develop our own number stations? You know, like the number stations I kept looking up until my mom pried me away so I could take her to the Taste of Polonia so I could have at least some human-life interaction that weekend? Well, one way we could do it is to assign a number to a particular person or place. Like they do in clinical trials. Or they could base assignments of a grid, like below where Randy could try to figure out where Anton is using a row-column system and tell his fellow agents that way.
Sow if Randy says 3-1, Anton may be in Atlanta or if he says 2-4, his mortal enemy(!!!) [What? Too strong?] may be in Denver. Well, this was another simple, sweet lesson, but tune in next time, when I may have some more fun, more intriguing stuff … hopefully. Till then, live from 1-1, not 1-2, it’s … get it? From SNL … but I’m actually from Chicago so it’s like … yeah, came off too awkward too — will work on that.
So last Labor Day weekend I was kinda getting restless (when I should have been writing or promoting, I know, I know) but I came across a few sites talking about number stations and how spies used to use them. And then I googled the heck out of them. And then I youtubed the heck out of them. And why am I telling you this now?? Because NUMBERS!!! And why how does this relate to today’s lesson. Because NUMBERS!!! Because this is going to be a topic I’m going to relate to next week’s lesson. And then we makes our own numbers codes just like James Bond and Anton Zelov (well, of course I’m gonna plug in my own super spy here). And this will all go back to the principles of random number generation and multiple imputation we’ve discussed earlier. So stay tuned for more number coding. Just like Girl Code but way cooler, I think. Because NUMBERS!!!
And did I mention that there are also number station twitter accounts? And if I didn’t have the fear that a real-life Anton Zelov would come along and decapitate me for following them, I would actually follow them as they actually interest me way more than following John Krasinski or Ryan Gosling now. I know they are highly unlikely to even be real spy nations, but still. Because NUMBERS!!!
So times we want to know not only how many times something occurs but how frequently on average. Yes, there is a difference. Yes, I’m gonna use a Randy vs. Anton story as an example. So, say in one dimension, Randy catches Anton 3 out of 5 times or 60%. But one time, it takes him 1 year, another time 2 years, and yet another time 3 years. So the total follow-up time is actually 1 + 2 + 3 = 6 years for the times that Randy actually caught Anton. Of course, let’s just say there were two times Randy give up on Anton after 3 years, so adding this to the total follow-up time would give 6 + 3 + 3 = 12 years. And then dividing the number of times he caught Anton over the total follow-up would be 3/12 = 25%. So that’s kind of a bummer if you think about it. Randy only has a 25% (and not a 60%) chance of catching Anton in any given year. Or does he …
Till next time … but you can always find out sooner by going to amazon and … yeah, you know already.